Imagine waking up to the news that your country's leadership is being challenged, not through elections, but by armed forces. That's precisely the situation unfolding in Madagascar. The president, Andry Rajoelina, has declared that an illegal power grab is underway, spearheaded by a faction within the military. But here's where it gets controversial: this isn't just a spontaneous uprising; it's the culmination of weeks of escalating protests fueled by deep-seated frustration among the Malagasy people.
President Rajoelina stated on Sunday morning that he was "in the country… managing national affairs," attempting to project an image of control amidst the turmoil. This came after the newly appointed Prime Minister, Ruphin Fortunat Zafisambo, offered dialogue with all factions, including the youth, unions, and, crucially, the military, on state television the previous night. Rajoelina’s statement emphasized that the alleged power grab was "contrary to the constitution and to democratic principles."
The spark that ignited this crisis was the intervention of the elite Capsat unit. This unit publicly announced its takeover of the army, a move that followed weeks of protests primarily led by young people. These protests, initially triggered by water and electricity shortages that plagued daily life, quickly morphed into a broader demand for President Rajoelina's resignation. The protesters' grievances extended to widespread corruption and a call for a fundamental overhaul of the political system – a desire for systemic change that resonated deeply with a population struggling with poverty and inequality. And this is the part most people miss: these aren't isolated complaints; they reflect a pervasive sense of disillusionment.
Interestingly, the Capsat unit has a history with Rajoelina; they were instrumental in bringing him to power during a coup back in 2009. This historical context adds another layer of complexity to the current situation. It raises questions about the unit's motives and whether their actions are genuinely driven by a desire for reform or by other, perhaps less altruistic, considerations.
Following their announcement, General Demosthene Pikulas, the head of Capsat, was installed as the new chief of army staff in a ceremony at army headquarters. What makes this even more striking is that the armed forces minister, Manantsoa Deramasinjaka Rakotoarivelo, seemingly endorsed the move, stating, "I give him my blessing.” Pikulas, while acknowledging the "unpredictable" nature of recent events, claimed the army's responsibility was to "restore calm and peace throughout Madagascar." When pressed about whether he was calling for Rajoelina's resignation, he declined to comment on "politics within a military facility." This ambiguous response further fuels speculation about the unit's true intentions and the extent of their opposition to the current government.
Prior to their official takeover, Capsat had declared they would not fire on protestors and encouraged other military units to join their refusal. On Saturday, members of the unit left their base in armored vehicles and drove to the May 13 Square, a symbolic location, accompanied by thousands of cheering protesters. This suggests a significant level of popular support, or at least a willingness to accept the military's intervention as a potential solution to the country's problems.
Tragically, the protests have not been without bloodshed. Capsat reported that one of their soldiers was killed by the gendarmerie, a police force under the command of the defense ministry, and a journalist was shot. The UN reported at least 22 deaths at the start of the protests in September, although President Rajoelina disputed this, claiming only 12 "looters and vandals" had died. This discrepancy in reported casualties highlights the difficulty in obtaining accurate information and the potential for conflicting narratives to further inflame tensions.
The Gen Z Madagascar movement, a leaderless group of young people inspired by similar movements in Indonesia and Nepal, initially coordinated the protests. This generation's desire for change is palpable, reflecting a global trend of young people demanding greater accountability and a more equitable future. In response to the initial demonstrations, Rajoelina fired his government on September 29th. However, this move was deemed insufficient by Gen Z Madagascar, who continued to demand his resignation, along with the removal of the leader of parliament and constitutional court judges. The protesters' rallying cry, "Miala Rajoelina!" (Leave Rajoelina!), echoed through the streets, underscoring their unwavering determination.
Some young activists have voiced concerns about Capsat's intervention, labeling the soldiers and opposition politicians who joined them as "dangerous." This highlights a crucial point: while many are desperate for change, there's also a fear that the military's involvement could lead to further instability and potentially undermine democratic processes.
Madagascar's socio-economic context adds another layer of complexity. As one of the world’s poorest countries, with a GDP per capita of just $545 last year, according to the World Bank, the nation faces significant challenges. Furthermore, its ranking of 140 out of 180 countries in Transparency International’s 2024 corruption perceptions index underscores the pervasive nature of corruption, a key driver of public discontent. The nation, rich in precious gems and vanilla, should be thriving, but instead is plagued by poverty and corruption.
This situation raises several crucial questions: Is this a legitimate attempt to address the deep-seated grievances of the Malagasy people, or is it simply a power grab by a faction within the military? Will the military's intervention lead to genuine reform, or will it usher in a new era of instability and authoritarianism? And, perhaps most importantly, what role should the international community play in helping Madagascar navigate this crisis? What do you think? Is military intervention ever justified to remove a corrupt leader? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
